Indiana and North Carolina Primary Results Leave the Future of McCain Presidential Campaign in Question

Posted: June 3rd, 2008 | Author: caden | Filed under: Politics | Tags: future, indiana, mccain, north carolina, primary, results |

Even before the May 6 primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, there were some ominous signs for John McCain. In the days before the election, Keith Clock, a Democratic Party chairman in Indiana, had already noticed an increase in calls from Republicans. They wanted to know how to vote for Democratic presidential candidates, while still opting to choose Republicans for local positions in the state, according to the Indianapolis Star.

The calls turned out to be eerily accurate as a large number of Republicans seemed to cast their vote for Democratic candidates. McCain did manage to get 78 percent of the Republican vote in Indiana and 74 percent in North Carolina. This is far from a resounding victory, since over 25 percent of Republican primary voters in North Carolina did not vote for him - and nearly as many in Indiana. These facts have political analysts as well as the average voter trying to figure out the implications of all this.

While there are many possible reasons for the results to have turned out the way they did, three major reasons seem to be creating buzz and getting media attention:

The Crossover effect

Up to 10 percent of voters in Indiana may well have been crossover voters (Republicans voting for Democratic candidates, whether for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama). Although crossover voting is not allowed in North Carolina, it may well have been a major factor in Indiana, accounting for Hillary Clinton’s win. She managed to win by a margin of 51% to 49%. This was not considered a strongly decisive win, but decisive enough to claim victory. She also showed up in Indiana and made a victory speech.

At many polling places, there were strong indications of a crossover factor. One example? Observations by Republican Party officials in Elkhart Country, according to information at The Age. While full details have yet to be analyzed, if at least 10% of Clinton’s votes came from avowed Republicans then the crossover factor could be a major aspect of her win in Indiana.

The Indianapolis Star also contained many reports of hundreds of Republicans who voted for Democratic presidential candidates in large numbers. A record number of voters turned out for the election, with 1.2 million votes cast after 75% of the precincts reported. In Marion County an astounding 80% of ballots cast were Democratic after 98.8 percent of the precincts had reported results. In Broad Ripple, voters had clearly selected a Republican candidate as recently as March (in a U.S. Congress special election). Even so, a small number of voters had requested Republican ballots in at least one of those precincts.

If the crossover factor is a reality, why would traditional Republican voters choose to vote for Democrats in the Indiana primary election? The answers aren’t necessarily simple. Some may be voting for Clinton as the "weaker candidate" in hopes that they can ultimately vote for McCain in the final presidential election. Other voters may have become disheartened in the face of a tightening economy, health care issues and rising gas costs. A significant number of Indiana voters seem to have been turned off by Obama’s connection to Reverend White. Exit polls indicated that half the Democrats who voted in Indiana and North Carolina said that the connection between Obama and Reverend White was considered important - and was a negative factor in their perception of Obama.

The Rush Limbaugh "Operation Chaos" factor

While a fair number of media experts and others scoffed at the effect Rush Limbaugh had on either the Indiana or North Carolina election results, there were voters showing up who called themselves "operatives" , asked for Democratic ballots and noted that they were part of "Operation Chaos". As reported at The Age.com website noted above (reporter Lucy Battersby), Limbaugh had urged Republicans to vote for Senator Clinton. The strategy? To damage Barack Obama.

Limbaugh may or may not have been a factor. If Clinton had won by a wider margin, the Limbaugh Effect might well have been dismissed (or perhaps taken more seriously - who knows?) Limbaugh’s strategy? To have voters select the candidate who has the greatest chance of losing against McCain. If the strategy works, this could strengthen McCain’s chances of winning. Of course, for this plan to work, voters really have to feel strongly that McCain is a better choice than Clinton, assuming Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. This is also a concession by Limbaugh and others that Barack Obama poses a greater threat to McCain than Clinton does.

McCain’s inability to win core voters

In Indiana, Mike Huckabee got a full 10% of the votes, being seen as a possible protest vote by evangelicals and those who wanted someone with a more clearcut faith-based stance. McCain has a reputation for not being nearly as clear about his religious beliefs. That was just one problem facing McCain recently. Although he has made attempts to go after blue-collar Democrats by visiting Youngstown, Ohio (a steel town facing enormous challenges) as well as going to Appalachian areas of Kentucky to convince voters there that he is committed to bringing in new jobs, the results of his efforts have yet to be seen.

In an even more interesting move, McCain actually started a Spanish-language website on Monday (the same day as Cinco de Mayo), although this may not be enough to balance the potential harm caused by the Republican debates over immigration issues and reform.

Can McCain win the Presidential election?

The recent results in the North Carolina and Indiana primary elections leave much open to question, particularly whether a significant number of Republicans voted for Hillary Clinton in Indiana in hopes that she might still win the Democratic nomination -and then hoped they would be able to vote for McCain. In short, does a vote for Clinton really mean a bid for McCain or does it reflect a true desire to Clinton to win the Presidential race?

McCain was able to suffer torture for over five years, including time spent in solitary confinement. That won the admiration of many, showing his strength of character and resilience and courage in the face of great adversity. Even so, he faces a long road ahead of him. He voted against Bush’s tax cuts, passed the controversial McCain-Feingold campaign finace reform bill and supported pro-immigration bills before changing his stance on that issue. He has an identity crisis when it comes to public perception,not always being seen as the type of Republican candidate that is needed now. Of course, there is also the question of whether any Republican candidate has a fair shot when the presiding President (Bush) has such low popularity ratings.

Again, there may be an issue with any Republican winning the election this year (if Indiana and North Carolina primary results are any indication of future results). When it comes to politics, there is always room for surprises. However, recent election results and the division in the Democratic party - with Obama and Clinton continuing to battle it out - may either make or break McCain’s chances for a win. It could go either way. If the Democratic candidates can come together and help unite the party, McCain’s chances of a win may lessen significantly.

Sources

John Strauss, "Clerk: Voters Better Get in Line Soon" May 6, 2008, IndyStar.com

USA Today, 2008 Indiana Primary Results, content.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/results.aspx

Indiana Exit Poll Results, May 6, Indystar.com, www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article

Ariel Sabar, Christian Science Monitor, "McCain Courts Blue-Collar Democrats", May 7

James Yeh, The Emory Wheel, "McCain: A Real Conservative" , April 8, 2008

Adam Nagourney, The New York Times, "Clinton’s Options Seem to Dwindle" , May 7

Rush Limbaugh, mp3 recording, i.timeinc.net/time/2008/thepage/Limbaugh_050608.mp3

Michelle Dubert, Rolling Stone (blog) "The Limbaugh Effect", May 7, 2008 www.rollingstone.com/nationalaffairs/index.php/2008/05/07/the-limbaugh-effect/

More resources

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NEWS0502/805060396/

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